On Thursday, the Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC) presented their Climate Safety report (which can be downloaded here). BFCS was at the well-attended report launch.
The panel of speakers was made up of Caroline Lucas (Green MEP), George Monbiot (journalist and writer), Jeremy Leggett (founder of Solar Century), Kevin Anderson (Tyndall Institute), Tim Helweg-Larsen (PIRC) and Leila Deen (World Development Movement).
The issue of climate change was broken into roughly three segments:
• The State of Play
• Solutions
• Action
State of Play
Kevin Anderson and Tim Helweg-Larsen gave a stark, but realistic, outline on the state of the world’s climate and the probable effects that will result from our greenhouse gas emissions. The tendency for conservatism in key climate change reviews (such as Stern) was challenged.
Anderson underlined that restricting climate change to a 2℃ increase was now almost impossible, and that a 4℃ target would be more realistic, though by no means easily achievable. The scale of this challenge would be considerable.
From a 2020 peak in annual emissions, a 2℃ target would require a 10% p.a. drop in emissions; 3℃ a 9% reduction; and 4℃ a 3.5% fall. The only time we have been able to effect a change of greater than 5% in emissions came after the collapse of the Soviet Union (something which can skew our interpretation of emissions data if we’re not careful).
Helweg-Larsen put forward the case for revising our climate change targets. He argued that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other institutions were using outdated figures (due to the time needed to adjust complex climate models, and not inertia or negligence). To support his position, Helweg-Larsen pointed to rapid, ahead-of-schedule Arctic ice melt in 2007.
Solutions
George Monbiot and Tim Helweg-Larsen presented approaches to tackling the issue of climate change. These solutions were focused on the UK, with the aim of positioning us as a global leader in this field.
Monbiot proposed a ‘Green New Deal’. This would aim to bring about carbon reductions of 25% by the end of 2012. His proposals included: jobs creation and skills training for builders in energy efficiency; heavy subsidies for home insulation (a 10-year programme); transition to a green energy national grid; and controlling air travel to reduce it to 5% of current levels.
Some of Monbiot’s ideas, such as home insulation, appear achievable, with great benefits (Jeremy Leggett later stated that a £0.5 billion investment on home insulation could result in a £4.5 billion saving). Others, like the reduction in air travel, left one wondering about the practicalities of implementation.
A flaw in Monbiot’s proposals seemed to be his idea for the reorganisation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to help fund his suggestions. Caroline Lucas spoke about the difficulty in negotiating in the European parliament on environmental issues due to the intransigence from some nations and powerful lobbyists (especially oil and gas).
Helweg-Larsen talked about the need to preserve our carbon sinks. This applied to both the UK and globally. Slightly more controversially, he argued that we should look into trying to modify our carbon sinks to maximise their storage potential. He also mentioned geo-engineering as an option.
Helweg-Larsen also spoke on energy sources. He suggested that the Government create Energy bonds to fund the shift to the large-scale adoption of green energy. He stressed the benefits of investment in this area. An investment of £0.6-1.2 billion would reduce the costs of installation for 29GW of offshore wind power by £14 billion. As fossil fuel prices rise or continue to be volatile, the cost of renewable energy (in pure financial terms) becomes more attractive.
Action
Jeremy Leggett, Caroline Lucas and Leila Deen all discussed how change can and could be effected. They tackled the subject from three different perspectives: business (Leggett), politics (Lucas) and the individual/grassroots (Deen).
Leggett saw the credit crunch as an opportunity to push forward the climate change agenda. He was excited not only by the level of capital becoming available to green companies, but also the sources of the investment. He argued that institutional investors were increasingly looking at green companies (especially in the energy sector) as an attractive proposition.
Leggett also touched on the chance we have to restructure our appraoch to the economy and business. He suggested that in the face of the failures of several large banks, people might turn towards smaller-scale, community-based investment opportunities and credit unions.
Lucas stated that science and the general population had for the most part accepted the need to tackle climate change, and that it was now primarily a challenge of political will. However, she was pessimistic when it came to European or global (through the renegotiation of the Kyoto protocol) action. In her view, direct action and the voice of the people would be a much more powerful instrument of change.
This linked into Deen’s encouragement for individual and community action. The protests against Kingsnorth power station and Heathrow runway 3 were cited as successes of grassroots activism. Deen recognised that the final outcome of both were still undecided, but she praised protesters for generating media attention and putting the issues on the political agenda.
Find out more about PIRC, and download their reports, here.
